Appel is tearing it up, now batting .368 with speed. He's got four 2-hit games in a row, and has struck out only 6 times in 38 at bats, which is really good. He also swiped a couple of bags over the weekend, albeit getting caught once.
Poor Hargrave is making a case that he might be a bit overmatched right now. He's hitless in his last 11 at bats, and the average is down to .119, with 15 strikeouts in 42 at bats. He needs to make an adjustment, probably a mental one, as anyone who watched him knows this kid can hit, and knock it with some power.
Carver continues to see sporadic playing time, but had a good weekend when he got into the action.
Holt should get another start Tuesday night.
Hall has only 2 pinch hit at bats in Ottawa, both strikeouts. He'll put one in play soon!
Monday, June 30, 2008
Friday, June 27, 2008
Oh, Canada!
Oh, Canada! I finally found some news on Nate Hall. He just signed with the Ottawa Rapidz of the Canadian American League, a single-A-level, independent minor league with teams ranging from Atlantic City to Quebec City. John Lindsay, doing very well in the Dodgers AAA squad at Las Vegas, is a Can-Am league alum, and Ken Ray, who pitched a bit for the Braves a couple of years ago, is playing in the league.
Nate made his pro debut on June 25, at home against Sussex, and struck out.
An update on the other batters:
Carver got into his first game since 6/21, and went 2-for-4 with a double, RBI, and Run scored at Auburn. Hopefully this will earn him another start real soon.
Hargrave went 1-for-6 with a single and 2 strikeouts at Jamestown, so no extra base hits yet for the slugging infielder. Villegas Andino played 3B--could be some kind of infielder rotation working in Williamsport.
Appel picked up 2 hits in 4 at bats at home against Staten Island, batting 8th and playing center field, raising his average to .320. Scelfo played 3B.
Nate made his pro debut on June 25, at home against Sussex, and struck out.
An update on the other batters:
Carver got into his first game since 6/21, and went 2-for-4 with a double, RBI, and Run scored at Auburn. Hopefully this will earn him another start real soon.
Hargrave went 1-for-6 with a single and 2 strikeouts at Jamestown, so no extra base hits yet for the slugging infielder. Villegas Andino played 3B--could be some kind of infielder rotation working in Williamsport.
Appel picked up 2 hits in 4 at bats at home against Staten Island, batting 8th and playing center field, raising his average to .320. Scelfo played 3B.
Next!
Bradley Holt's second pro start, versus Aberdeen: 5 IP, no hits, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts. Short-season A ball? Next!
All I really look at for pitchers are the peripherals: strikeout rate, strikeout-to-walk ratio, and home runs allowed ratio. These peripherals are very consistent from year to year, and predict success (high wins, low ERA) much better than any other measures (such as past W-L record or past ERA). In short, there's a lot of luck in baseball, and as a pitcher, walks hurt you, and home runs kill you, but every ball put into play historically has about a 30% chance of turning into a hit, and this doesn't vary much from pitcher to pitcher. So...if you don't walk a lot of guys, and can keep the ball in the park, when you strike a lot of guys out you just aren't going to give up very many hits, or very many runs.
Holt's peripherals after 2 starts are a 5:1 K:BB, 12.7 K:9IP, and 0 HR:9IP. These are better than the best peripherals of any major leaguer. Holt is off to a very good start.
All I really look at for pitchers are the peripherals: strikeout rate, strikeout-to-walk ratio, and home runs allowed ratio. These peripherals are very consistent from year to year, and predict success (high wins, low ERA) much better than any other measures (such as past W-L record or past ERA). In short, there's a lot of luck in baseball, and as a pitcher, walks hurt you, and home runs kill you, but every ball put into play historically has about a 30% chance of turning into a hit, and this doesn't vary much from pitcher to pitcher. So...if you don't walk a lot of guys, and can keep the ball in the park, when you strike a lot of guys out you just aren't going to give up very many hits, or very many runs.
Holt's peripherals after 2 starts are a 5:1 K:BB, 12.7 K:9IP, and 0 HR:9IP. These are better than the best peripherals of any major leaguer. Holt is off to a very good start.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Adventures in the New York-Penn League
Amazingly, all four draftees end up in the New York-Penn league, a short-season, low, low minor league where mud, rainouts, and desperate finances afflict small towns from Lowell, Massachusetts, to Oneonta, New York, to Aberdeen, Maryland. Roger Kahn has written extensively about his (massively unprofitable) experiences owning a team in this league, and it makes for good reading.
Mark Carver, Jason Appel, and Daniel Hargrave signed almost immediately after draft day (June 8), and were placed, respectively, with the State College (PA) Spikes, the Hudson Valley (Wappingers Falls, NY) Renegades, and the Williamsport (PA) Crosscutters.
Carver: has started 1-for-10, with 3 strikeouts, and has not played in 4 days. He seems relegated to a backup role at the moment. There are 2 other catchers on the Spikes, Chris Simmons, a 41st round pick from Army who just signed and has started 2-for-4 in his first game, and Josue Peley, a 20-year-old Venezuelan (Latin American players do not go through the Draft) prospect who has received the lion's share of the playing time, but who has started only 2-for-18. All told, Spikes catchers are hitting .156/.206/.187, so Carver is not exactly getting left in the dust.
Appel: is a Long Island kid, the only Yankee on the 2008 UNCW Seahawks, playing in Wappingers Falls, NY, less than 100 miles from home. Appel started the first six games in center field, and has come in as a pinch runner/defensive replacement since. He's started at .286/.318/.333, which is respectable enough, but has found the bench the last 2 games behind Anthony Scelfo, another left-handed batter who has identical stats but was an 8th round pick, drafted as an infielder. Apparently they are giving him a look as a center fielder.
Hargrave: has started 4-for-27 with 1 walk and 8 strikeouts, but, like Carver, is not really getting left in the dust by his Latin American position mates. Jesus Villegas Andino, a 2007 14th rounder who played shortstop and hit .184/.275/.269 in 32 games for the Gulf Coast League Phillies, came down from Class A Advanced after hitting well there to start last night in Hargrave's place. The plan for him, I think, was probably to have him spend another season in short-season ball, and now that the season has started, they have him there. The Crosscutters seem to have 3 middle infielders, so we'll see if there's some kind of timeshare there.
Holt: the 11th pitcher taken in the Draft, he signed on June 13, and has just recently reported to the Brooklyn Cyclones.
********************* (From MLB.com)
Holt, the No. 33 pick in the Draft, also has a few things he has to work on. At UNC-Wilmington, the 6-foot-4 righty threw about "99 percent" fastballs, and he'll begin developing a secondary pitch when he starts working out with the Cyclones.
Right now, he might only sprinkle in a slider or split-fingered fastball on occasion, a repertoire that still earned him a 19-9 collegiate record in three seasons with the Seahawks and eventually made him the highest drafted player in the program's history.
Even without the extra pitches, the Mets were still pleased with the stuff he brought to his 25-pitch session in the Shea Stadium bullpen on Friday. In fact, if he weren't wearing that uniform for show on Friday, the coaches joked that they'd throw him in that day's game.
"I plan on throwing all three pitches," Holt said. "Everything looked sharp. They told me if I had gone on the mound, and if I was going in today, everything would have been positive."
*********************
Holt's pro debut was on a June 21 start in Aberdeen, where he got his feet barely wet, facing 10 batters in 2-1/3 innings, givng up 2 hits, striking out 4 and walking 1. Both runners he left on base scored after he left. A good start for a promising prospect.
For all their denigration in Moneyball, and the fashion of sabermetrics, MLB scouts are really quite good, and the great majority of players picked within the first 50 picks in a draft have always tended to make the major leagues. So, as the 33rd pick, there is a very, very good chance we'll see Holt in a major league uniform one day. Not bad for a kid who just one season ago had a 5.90 ERA as a UNCW sophomore!
As for Nate Hall and Jeff Hatcher? So far, I've found no information on what either of them are doing. I assume they're playing, or getting ready to play, somewhere, or at least staying in shape. If anyone reading this has any info, please let me know!
Mark Carver, Jason Appel, and Daniel Hargrave signed almost immediately after draft day (June 8), and were placed, respectively, with the State College (PA) Spikes, the Hudson Valley (Wappingers Falls, NY) Renegades, and the Williamsport (PA) Crosscutters.
Carver: has started 1-for-10, with 3 strikeouts, and has not played in 4 days. He seems relegated to a backup role at the moment. There are 2 other catchers on the Spikes, Chris Simmons, a 41st round pick from Army who just signed and has started 2-for-4 in his first game, and Josue Peley, a 20-year-old Venezuelan (Latin American players do not go through the Draft) prospect who has received the lion's share of the playing time, but who has started only 2-for-18. All told, Spikes catchers are hitting .156/.206/.187, so Carver is not exactly getting left in the dust.
Appel: is a Long Island kid, the only Yankee on the 2008 UNCW Seahawks, playing in Wappingers Falls, NY, less than 100 miles from home. Appel started the first six games in center field, and has come in as a pinch runner/defensive replacement since. He's started at .286/.318/.333, which is respectable enough, but has found the bench the last 2 games behind Anthony Scelfo, another left-handed batter who has identical stats but was an 8th round pick, drafted as an infielder. Apparently they are giving him a look as a center fielder.
Hargrave: has started 4-for-27 with 1 walk and 8 strikeouts, but, like Carver, is not really getting left in the dust by his Latin American position mates. Jesus Villegas Andino, a 2007 14th rounder who played shortstop and hit .184/.275/.269 in 32 games for the Gulf Coast League Phillies, came down from Class A Advanced after hitting well there to start last night in Hargrave's place. The plan for him, I think, was probably to have him spend another season in short-season ball, and now that the season has started, they have him there. The Crosscutters seem to have 3 middle infielders, so we'll see if there's some kind of timeshare there.
Holt: the 11th pitcher taken in the Draft, he signed on June 13, and has just recently reported to the Brooklyn Cyclones.
********************* (From MLB.com)
Holt, the No. 33 pick in the Draft, also has a few things he has to work on. At UNC-Wilmington, the 6-foot-4 righty threw about "99 percent" fastballs, and he'll begin developing a secondary pitch when he starts working out with the Cyclones.
Right now, he might only sprinkle in a slider or split-fingered fastball on occasion, a repertoire that still earned him a 19-9 collegiate record in three seasons with the Seahawks and eventually made him the highest drafted player in the program's history.
Even without the extra pitches, the Mets were still pleased with the stuff he brought to his 25-pitch session in the Shea Stadium bullpen on Friday. In fact, if he weren't wearing that uniform for show on Friday, the coaches joked that they'd throw him in that day's game.
"I plan on throwing all three pitches," Holt said. "Everything looked sharp. They told me if I had gone on the mound, and if I was going in today, everything would have been positive."
*********************
Holt's pro debut was on a June 21 start in Aberdeen, where he got his feet barely wet, facing 10 batters in 2-1/3 innings, givng up 2 hits, striking out 4 and walking 1. Both runners he left on base scored after he left. A good start for a promising prospect.
For all their denigration in Moneyball, and the fashion of sabermetrics, MLB scouts are really quite good, and the great majority of players picked within the first 50 picks in a draft have always tended to make the major leagues. So, as the 33rd pick, there is a very, very good chance we'll see Holt in a major league uniform one day. Not bad for a kid who just one season ago had a 5.90 ERA as a UNCW sophomore!
As for Nate Hall and Jeff Hatcher? So far, I've found no information on what either of them are doing. I assume they're playing, or getting ready to play, somewhere, or at least staying in shape. If anyone reading this has any info, please let me know!
Welcome to Seahawks Go Pro
With my serious interest in the 2007-2008 UNC-Wilmington Seahawks Men's Baseball team, and also in the MLB draft, I thought it made sense to start a blog, which perhaps 1 or 2 other people on the planet may be interested in.
The Seahawks had a magical season, well known to those who followed the program. It was magical for me and my family, as well, taking my 2 year old son, Julian, and my newborn daughter, Wallis, to Brooks field for game after game.
The Seahawks won 21 games in a row between February 29 and April 1 (the early part of the season), and after a disappointing early exit in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament, the Seahawks used an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament to pull off the single greatest comeback I've seen during my 30+ years watching thousands and thousands of games.
I sat on the steep lawn just behind third base at the USA Baseball Training Complex in Cary, NC (I took the family on a 2 hour drive from Wilmington) watching UNCW losing to Elon, 11-4, in an elimination game during the NCAA Regional.
After so many comebacks, I decided to stay for the last out, not only because it would be the end of the sparkling college careers of most of the UNCW players, but also because there had been so much magic throughout the season, a 7 run deficit seemed only mostly insurmountable.
After a leadoff single by light-hitting shortstop Mike Rooney, UNCW sent up senior Shane French as a pinch hitter to give him one final college at bat, and he popped out to right on the second pitch, getting a nice round of applause from the Seahawk faithful for a college career well done.
Four hits later (mostly hard ground balls that all found holes), it was 11-7 with a Nate Hall on second, and Elon went to the bullpen. The Elon bullpen, right in front of me, had been relaxed, and Thomas Girdwood, the Elon super-closer, had been making jokes with his father, who was seated just to my left. He said "I might get into this one yet," very cavalierly. When he went in, he winked at his father. "I'll take care of this little problem," was the feel.
Indeed.
After Bobby Leeper plated Hall to make it 11-8, Girdwood walked Rhett Miller and Jes Snyder to load the bases. Ouch. Walks in the 9th inning before the tying run is at the plate, of course, are every bit as bad as home runs, perhaps worse if you consider there's a continuation of momentum that doesn't happen after a home run.
Light-hitting Mike Rooney came back up, and hit a hard grounder up the middle, another ball that could have been a game-ending double play if hit near a fielder, but fate smiled as the ball scooted into center to score 2 more, making it 11-10 with runners on first and second.
That brought up Shane French, the pinch hitter who, it turns out, would get at least one more college at bat. French quickly drilled a fastball high and deep to right center, a home run at Brooks, but in the much larger expanse of USA Baseball Land, hit high off the padded green wall for a go-ahead, 2 run double. It was 12-11, UNCW. By the time the inning ended, the Seahwaks led 15-11, and when senior Allen Flood struck out future pro Chris Dove to end it, UNCW had completed the greatest comeback I'd ever seen.
A few hours later, powerhouse UNC gave UNCW more than it could handle, sending the Seahawks home and punching their own ticket for the Super Regionals. That's baseball.
But the story doesn't really end there. In fact, my blog really begins here.
Among the upperclassmen pitchers, flamethrower Bradley Holt and soft tosser Jeff Hatcher had fantastic seasons, Holt going 11-1, with a 3.18 ERA in a very strong offensive environment, and Hatcher having a solid 6-2, 4.42 season with nearly a 4:1 K:BB ratio.
Among the senior position players, catcher Mark Carver was named conference player of the year after tying the single season school home run record (21), and setting the school record for runs (71) and RBI (82). Second baseman Daniel Hargrave slugged 18 home runs, also scoring 71 runs, center fielder Jason Appel batted .397 with 100 hits(!) and a .467 on base percentage, and third baseman Nate Hall batted .348 with 13 home runs.
As the draft approached, it seemed possible that all six of those players could be drafted. Holt, it was thought, might have worked his way into the second round with great performances late in the season. Carver was thought perhaps 10th-15th round material; Hargrave and Appel somewhere in the 20s. As for Hall and Hatcher, some felt they would be drafted very late, and others felt they would not.
What actually happened?
Bradley Holt was drafted by the Mets with the 33rd pick overall (1st round compensation round for teams that lost Type A Free Agents), a draft slot that should earn him at least a $1 million signing bonus. While Carver waited and waited, Jason Appel went to the Rays to open the 22nd round, and Hargrave's name was called by the Phillies 23 picks later, in the back half of the 22nd round. Generally no bonus money anywhere near the 22nd round, but hey, it's early enough to claim a starting spot in the low minors. It's a chance.
Carver waited and waited some more, undoubtedly thinking about how a slow last few weeks with all the scouts watching him hit poorly against really good pitching must have hurt his draftability more than most folks realized. 22nd round picks truly do tend to get a bit more of a chance than 33rd round picks.
Because Jeff Hatcher doesn't seem to be "projectable" (he's a very polished college pitcher who is not likely to improve much, and would be likely to get his head beat in as a pro), it was no surprise that he wasn't taken. Nate Hall not being taken, on the other hand, surprises me. Hall had a great season, has no shortage of power, is a true ballplayer, and it strikes me that he could yet get quite a bit better. I guess he'll have to prove it in wood bat summer leagues, and then try to get signed as a free agent. It's the real hard road to the majors for Nate.
Of course, let's not kid ourselves. Fewer than 1 pick from each draft's 22nd round is expected to ever play in the majors, even for one inning. While Holt and his 95mph fastball (with no really good other pitches) project into a potentially superb major league pitcher, and with the bonus money given him he will be given every chance, the other three draftees and the two non-draftees face a serious uphill climb. But it will be fun to follow. And that's just what this blog will do. Follow Mark Carver, Bradley Holt, Jason Appel, Daniel Hargrave, Jeff Hatcher, and Nate Hall on their journey to "The Show." My plan now is to follow them until there's nothing more to say, that is, until no more news about their baseball careers can be found. So, yes, this could turn into a Bradley Holt blog long after I've left Wilmington, and the others have returned, but we'll just have to see where it leads.
I've never met any of these kids, as far as I know, unless one of them served me a plate of fajitas one day at On The Border in Mayfaire, but I feel that I went on a bit of a magical journey with them, and that their story is in some way a little part of my story, at least for this one year where my toddler son, barnacle-baby daughter, and, yes, even my patient and understanding wife, joined me in my deep interest in following the most special athletic product our little town has produced in its long history.
So, if you are one of the two people on this planet who might care about this blog, leave me a comment! I'd love to hear from you!
The Seahawks had a magical season, well known to those who followed the program. It was magical for me and my family, as well, taking my 2 year old son, Julian, and my newborn daughter, Wallis, to Brooks field for game after game.
The Seahawks won 21 games in a row between February 29 and April 1 (the early part of the season), and after a disappointing early exit in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament, the Seahawks used an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament to pull off the single greatest comeback I've seen during my 30+ years watching thousands and thousands of games.
I sat on the steep lawn just behind third base at the USA Baseball Training Complex in Cary, NC (I took the family on a 2 hour drive from Wilmington) watching UNCW losing to Elon, 11-4, in an elimination game during the NCAA Regional.
After so many comebacks, I decided to stay for the last out, not only because it would be the end of the sparkling college careers of most of the UNCW players, but also because there had been so much magic throughout the season, a 7 run deficit seemed only mostly insurmountable.
After a leadoff single by light-hitting shortstop Mike Rooney, UNCW sent up senior Shane French as a pinch hitter to give him one final college at bat, and he popped out to right on the second pitch, getting a nice round of applause from the Seahawk faithful for a college career well done.
Four hits later (mostly hard ground balls that all found holes), it was 11-7 with a Nate Hall on second, and Elon went to the bullpen. The Elon bullpen, right in front of me, had been relaxed, and Thomas Girdwood, the Elon super-closer, had been making jokes with his father, who was seated just to my left. He said "I might get into this one yet," very cavalierly. When he went in, he winked at his father. "I'll take care of this little problem," was the feel.
Indeed.
After Bobby Leeper plated Hall to make it 11-8, Girdwood walked Rhett Miller and Jes Snyder to load the bases. Ouch. Walks in the 9th inning before the tying run is at the plate, of course, are every bit as bad as home runs, perhaps worse if you consider there's a continuation of momentum that doesn't happen after a home run.
Light-hitting Mike Rooney came back up, and hit a hard grounder up the middle, another ball that could have been a game-ending double play if hit near a fielder, but fate smiled as the ball scooted into center to score 2 more, making it 11-10 with runners on first and second.
That brought up Shane French, the pinch hitter who, it turns out, would get at least one more college at bat. French quickly drilled a fastball high and deep to right center, a home run at Brooks, but in the much larger expanse of USA Baseball Land, hit high off the padded green wall for a go-ahead, 2 run double. It was 12-11, UNCW. By the time the inning ended, the Seahwaks led 15-11, and when senior Allen Flood struck out future pro Chris Dove to end it, UNCW had completed the greatest comeback I'd ever seen.
A few hours later, powerhouse UNC gave UNCW more than it could handle, sending the Seahawks home and punching their own ticket for the Super Regionals. That's baseball.
But the story doesn't really end there. In fact, my blog really begins here.
Among the upperclassmen pitchers, flamethrower Bradley Holt and soft tosser Jeff Hatcher had fantastic seasons, Holt going 11-1, with a 3.18 ERA in a very strong offensive environment, and Hatcher having a solid 6-2, 4.42 season with nearly a 4:1 K:BB ratio.
Among the senior position players, catcher Mark Carver was named conference player of the year after tying the single season school home run record (21), and setting the school record for runs (71) and RBI (82). Second baseman Daniel Hargrave slugged 18 home runs, also scoring 71 runs, center fielder Jason Appel batted .397 with 100 hits(!) and a .467 on base percentage, and third baseman Nate Hall batted .348 with 13 home runs.
As the draft approached, it seemed possible that all six of those players could be drafted. Holt, it was thought, might have worked his way into the second round with great performances late in the season. Carver was thought perhaps 10th-15th round material; Hargrave and Appel somewhere in the 20s. As for Hall and Hatcher, some felt they would be drafted very late, and others felt they would not.
What actually happened?
Bradley Holt was drafted by the Mets with the 33rd pick overall (1st round compensation round for teams that lost Type A Free Agents), a draft slot that should earn him at least a $1 million signing bonus. While Carver waited and waited, Jason Appel went to the Rays to open the 22nd round, and Hargrave's name was called by the Phillies 23 picks later, in the back half of the 22nd round. Generally no bonus money anywhere near the 22nd round, but hey, it's early enough to claim a starting spot in the low minors. It's a chance.
Carver waited and waited some more, undoubtedly thinking about how a slow last few weeks with all the scouts watching him hit poorly against really good pitching must have hurt his draftability more than most folks realized. 22nd round picks truly do tend to get a bit more of a chance than 33rd round picks.
Because Jeff Hatcher doesn't seem to be "projectable" (he's a very polished college pitcher who is not likely to improve much, and would be likely to get his head beat in as a pro), it was no surprise that he wasn't taken. Nate Hall not being taken, on the other hand, surprises me. Hall had a great season, has no shortage of power, is a true ballplayer, and it strikes me that he could yet get quite a bit better. I guess he'll have to prove it in wood bat summer leagues, and then try to get signed as a free agent. It's the real hard road to the majors for Nate.
Of course, let's not kid ourselves. Fewer than 1 pick from each draft's 22nd round is expected to ever play in the majors, even for one inning. While Holt and his 95mph fastball (with no really good other pitches) project into a potentially superb major league pitcher, and with the bonus money given him he will be given every chance, the other three draftees and the two non-draftees face a serious uphill climb. But it will be fun to follow. And that's just what this blog will do. Follow Mark Carver, Bradley Holt, Jason Appel, Daniel Hargrave, Jeff Hatcher, and Nate Hall on their journey to "The Show." My plan now is to follow them until there's nothing more to say, that is, until no more news about their baseball careers can be found. So, yes, this could turn into a Bradley Holt blog long after I've left Wilmington, and the others have returned, but we'll just have to see where it leads.
I've never met any of these kids, as far as I know, unless one of them served me a plate of fajitas one day at On The Border in Mayfaire, but I feel that I went on a bit of a magical journey with them, and that their story is in some way a little part of my story, at least for this one year where my toddler son, barnacle-baby daughter, and, yes, even my patient and understanding wife, joined me in my deep interest in following the most special athletic product our little town has produced in its long history.
So, if you are one of the two people on this planet who might care about this blog, leave me a comment! I'd love to hear from you!
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